This segment will address American interests. When it comes to trade, investment and infrastructure development, China should not be the only game in town. Allied efforts to support U.S. force posture in the region will remain vital, but the United States should also expect allies to make greater contributions in responding to Chinese coercion. The strategic signal of an Indian presence in the South China Sea Harsh V. Pant India has wider stakes in South China Sea as nearly 55% of India's trade with the Indo-Pacific region passes through these waters. February 27, 2023. The Korean War produced formal defense treaties with each of these countries plus a new, permanent military presence in South Korea. 2013 The Philippines challenges Chinas claims of historic rights and other actions in an arbitration case under the Law of the Sea Convention. Security, Strategy, and Military Dynamics in South China Sea: Cross-National Perspectives on JSTOR. To facilitate capacity building, Washington should preserve regional defense relationships while recognizing that the ability of the United States to partner with frontline states depends on their cooperation and adherence to good governance and human rights. If China can exert complete control over the region, using predominantly the maritime domain, it can build a significant strategic sphere of influence and power. This button displays the currently selected search type. Beijing may not find it quite as easy to run roughshod over Hanoi in the coming years. Other claimant states welcome U.S. involvement precisely because Washington does not favor one claimants territorial ambitions over those of the others. If Chinese coercion goes unchallenged by the United States, it will send a dangerous signal about the strength of the U.S. alliance system and lessen the appeal of the United States as a security partner. Importance of South China Sea The South China Sea is a busy international waterway, one of the main arteries of global trade worth more than $5 trillion and is growing year on year. The primary challenge to American regional predominance came from Maoist China first through the Korean War and then via communist insurgencies throughout Southeast Asia culminating in the Vietnam War (1963-75). Chinas significant increase in spending and capability of its maritime forces is of note. That grouping came under Chinese control an event that went almost entirely unnoticed in the wider world as the drama marking the end of the Vietnam War played out. This article examines Chinas behaviour in the South China Sea disputes through the lens of its strategy for managing its claims. What evidence is there of increased projection of Maritime Power? With a maturing coast guard, navy and air force, Vietnam will become an increasingly prickly foe. Expanding U.S. access to Vietnamese facilities as described above could eventually render access to Thai facilities somewhat redundant, further weakening the institutional support for the alliance in the United States. Sign up to receive ShareAmerica updates. The isolationist China has never traditionally had a deep water navy, with a significant power projection capability; however the production of its first aircraft carrier (Liaoning) has been a noteworthy change from a soft power in the land environment to a hard power projection at sea stance. With the incoming administration likely to grapple early with South China Sea issues, the CSIS Southeast Asia Program, directed by Dr. Amy Searight, worked in collaboration with other Asia colleagues at CSISDr. It can receive large aircraft (including C-17s and C-130s); it is close to a deep seaport; and it has infrastructure capable of handling command and control systems. Importantly, the Air Forces presence on Luzon, perhaps to be followed by regular naval rotations in Subic Bay, will put the United States in a better position to quickly seal up the Luzon Strait, which links the South China Sea to the Philippine Sea and the wider Pacific Ocean. access to Thailands military facilities, particularly the strategically located and well-equipped Utapao airbase, is considered invaluable. China has steadily built capabilities and infrastructure, most notably military facilities on artificial islands, that enable greater control of the South China Sea. Since 2014, China has stepped up the construction of artificial islands over the disputed Spratlys and Paracels in the SCS, causing an escalation of tensions, upsetting stability. Douglas R. Bush, Deterring a Cross-Strait Conflict: Beijing's Assessment of Evolving U.S. Strategy, Rethinking Humanitarian Aid: A Conversation with Michelle Nunn, President and CEO of CARE USA, The South China Sea Some Fundamental Strategic Principles, Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, Diversity and Leadership in International Affairs Project, Energy Security and Climate Change Program. Enduring U.S. interestsfreedom of navigation and overflight, support for the rules-based international order, and the peaceful resolution of disputesare at risk in the region. No other state in the region can match this increase in projection and rival China due to the economic differences. A South China Sea Strategy By Dan Blumenthal, Michael Auslin, and Michael Mazza I. Beware China: America Fights Back In recent years, China's inventive engineering feats have allowed it to. That redundancy will grant the United States flexibility in a couple of ways. The South China Sea has become important to the US because of China's challenge to the liberal rules-based order that America has promoted since the Pacific war. The South China Sea (SCS) has great strategic and economic significance in the contemporary international politico-security environment. That should, of course, remain the goal, but Washington must recognize that Thailand is in the midst of a decade-long political crisis, which is unlikely to be resolved until after King Bhumibols passing and the royal succession is completed. Thailand has little reason to jettison the alliance, but in the near term the United States may need to accept more distant ties and a closer Thai-Chinese relationship. The Strategic Importance of the South China Sea. In practice, Thailand may be neutral in the regions great power fissures into the next decade. The credibility of U.S. security support for allies and partners will be shredded. U.S. interests in the South China Sea fall into three broad categories including: (1) Economic interests tied to the sea-lanes; (2) Defense ties with allies and other security partners; and (3) Implications for the global balance of power and influence. 5 min. Follow the Asia Program on Twitter @AsiaProgram. It is little surprise, then, that Southeast Asian states are drawing closer to the United Statesboth seeking aid in developing their own defense capabilities and hoping that stronger ties act as a deterrent to Chinese assertiveness. Successful capacity building efforts will allow Southeast Asian states to better help themselves, bolstering deterrence against low-level Chinese coercion and allowing the U.S. military to focus more on deterring high-level contingencies. Not taking a position on sovereignty allows the United States to flexibly intervene in the South China Sea to defend its interests and international rules and norms, while undercutting Chinese attempts to paint U.S. actions as a threat to Beijings sovereignty. Marcos Jr. had previously said his country would pursue oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea even without a deal with China, which claims almost all of the 1.3 million square mile South . With Burma internationally isolated for much of the past three decades, Beijing invested heavily in that countrys leadership. 1994 The Convention on the Law of the Sea goes into effect. U.S. Navy/Handout[/caption]. For example, targeted sanctions on Chinese companies involved in destabilizing activities could be considered. Then again, China may see its efforts in the South China Sea blunted. The power politics, military interests created the South China Sea more important. The second will analyze the strategic landscape in and around the South China Sea. This concept of regional order links tightly to a broader set of interests, values, and institutions embodied in the post-World War II international system a system that reflects U.S. values, U.S. leadership and is consonant with U.S. interests. That claim remained shrouded in a calculated fog of ambiguity until 2010 when Secretary of State Clinton addressed the status of the South China Sea and its sea-lanes at a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi. Nevertheless, for America, this new world will be profoundly discomfiting and even alien. economic importance associated with the ocean is tremendous and manifold. Given these advantages, Washington can afford to focus on the long game in Asia, confident that Chinese adventurism is likely to push many states to turn to the United States for support. The United States calls this treaty the Law of the Sea Convention.. This new strategic map of Southeast Asia actually began to take shape during the Bush administration, whichinitially launchedthe effort to move beyond Americas traditional hub-and-spokes alliance model in the Asia-Pacific. Therefore, the SCS has geopolitical and geostrategic importance for the energy and economic security of China and East Asian countries; but also for the USA as $1.2 trillion of its trade moves through the waters. That included nearly 40 percent of Chinas total trade and 90 percent of petroleum imports by China, Japan, and South Korea and nearly 6 percent of total U.S. trade. China is undertaking a persistent, long-term effort to establish control over the South China Sea. Australia and Vietnam established a Comprehensive Partnership in 2009 and agreed to expand it in 2015. In 1989 troops from the Peoples Liberation Army entered Tiananmen Square and terminated the student-led democracy demonstrations and hundreds died. America has formal defense/security alliances with five Asian countries: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, and Australia. In particular, shifting explanations for how the United States will manage Chinas rising power and influencealong with the military-heavy implementation of the rebalancehave exacerbated suspicions that Washington seeks to contain Beijings rise. In 2012, then Chinese president Hu Jintao voiced his desire to make China a powerful maritime nation. The South China Sea is a core interest of both Vietnam and China. In 2016, they carried fully one-third of global shipping with an estimated value of $3.4 trillion. US and China is engaging in this sea to control all significance. This access will allow for more frequent, more sustained flights over the South China Sea, including over the disputed Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. Improved governance will lead to stronger economies over the long term and dampen the influence of Chinese dirty money. The South China Sea, or South East Asian Sea, is a marginal sea of the Western Pacific Ocean.It is bounded in the north by the shores of South China (hence the name), in the west by the Indochinese Peninsula, in the east by the islands of Taiwan and northwestern Philippines (mainly Luzon, Mindoro and Palawan), and in the south by Borneo, eastern Sumatra and the Bangka Belitung Islands . The U.S. militarys enhanced ability to loiter in and over the South China Sea, moreover, will facilitate more effective efforts to track Chinese submarines sailing from the PLANs underground naval base on Hainan island. Guidelines for a South China Sea Strategy. The USA have a direct connection to the area through various allies, connections and trade, and this will naturally continue. In recent years, U.S. military planners have shifted their focus from counterterrorism, low intensity conflict to great power, high intensity threats. Australia will be isolated with an uncertain future. Vietnam's coastline bordering the South China Sea is over 3,000 kilometers long. The growing size and capability of the Chinese air force, navy, and coast guard allow Beijing to consistently monitor and exercise de facto control over most of the South China Sea. In sum, the South China Sea is the immediate arena where two alternative geopolitical paradigms are contesting for supremacy. Historically, Taiwan's pivotal location off the China coast and between Northeast and Southeast Asia has served a variety of strategic purposes for regional powers, both offensive and defensive. The Tribunal rejects Chinas maritime claims that go beyond the entitlements set out in the Law of the Sea Convention. The annual Cobra Gold exercise is Asias largest multilateral military exercise. the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States." Chinese control of the SCS-and, more generally, Chinese domination of China's near-seas region, meaning the SCS, the East China Sea (ECS), and the Yellow Sea-could substantially aect U.S. strategic, political, and economic interests in the Indo-Pacic region and . Michael Green, Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair; Dr. Zack Cooper, Fellow, Japan Chair; Bonnie Glaser, Senior Adviser for Asia and Director, China Power Project; Andrew Shearer, Senior Adviser on Asia-Pacific Security; and Greg Poling, Director Asia Maritime Transparency Initiativeto provide the analytical context and some fundamental principles that should guide strategic thinking on South China Sea policy. Geopolitical platform, analysis of political, military, security, economic, social events with international and geopolitics relevance. In particular, Thailand has a much more benign outlook on Chinas rise and on its activities in the South China Sea, and although suggestions that Bangkok would dump Washington for Beijing are certainly overstated, Thai elites are hesitant to be drawn into what they see as a U.S. effort to contain the kingdoms largest trade partner. The largest and most powerful of these . f) . The sea-lanes that pass through the South China Sea are the busiest, most important, maritime waterways in the world. A critical and early Chinese test of U.S. resolve is likely to come in the South China Sea, where Washington has struggled to respond effectively to assertive Chinese behavior. But the South China Sea has been dangerously overfished. It remains entirely plausible that any Chinese strategy could have a long term goal of possessing the power to deny US or western warships access to the SCS, with China largely laying claim to most of the area as it's own waters. However, Brunei's insistence that specific issues in the maritime region should be . More than 50% of world trade passes. In order to understand the contention of the South China Sea and its significance, it is firstly imperative to understand the geopolitical importance of Asia, which has given rise to Chinese pre-eminence; enabling its rise to contemporary major political power on the global stage. The United States now has the opportunity to secure for another generation the peace that has held in Asia for nearly four decades now. As one of the busiest trade routes in the world and home to a wealth of marine and mineral resources, the South China Sea holds great economic and geostrategic importance. It is a rich source of hydrocarbons and natural resources. Whomever is elected to be the next American president, that person would be wise to have in place a Plan B should the TPP fail to pass the Senate this year (such a Plan B is admittedly unlikely, given that both major candidates would bear responsibility for its failure in the first place). The South China Sea is considered a "near sea" and its geographic proximity to the mainland is central to the China's strategic imagination and threat perception. The same cannot be said for China and a maritime Southeast Asia that aligns with the United States. It was the first time that had ever occurred. See Media Page for more interview, contact, and citation details. Any such assertion must rest on an understanding that critical U.S. national interests, including both economic and security interests, are at stake and at risk. Washington (United States of America), February 27 (ANI): A Chinese J-11 fighter jet armed with air-to-air missiles intercepted the US Navy reconnaissance jet over the South China Sea, the Wall Street Journal reported. First, the United States should feel more confident to pressure the junta on human rights concerns. The U.S. China has tried to effectively annex the whole South China Sea region as its territorial waters, according to Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). The strategic landscape of the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia in the early 1990s was remarkably benign with optimism in full flower. The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. Vietnam and the Philippines have also attempted to form a strategic alliance with Japan in their struggle with China in the SCS. The strategic value of the alliance remains high, according to theCongressional Research Service: *** U.S. Cobra Gold, hosted by Thailand and led by the United States, is the largest annual multilateral military exercise in Asia. The security assurances provided by the U.S. military presence coupled with the advent of regional institutions, notably ASEAN and the Asian Development Bank, nurtured that growth. . In sum, the United States has built and maintained a dense network of security links and obligations throughout East and Southeast Asia all sustained by regular contact with the Seventh Fleet as it transits the region via the South China Sea. Since the mid-1990s, China has pursued a strategy . The United States has been largely successful at preserving its own freedom of action and deterring outright Chinese aggression in the South China Sea through routine presence operations. Any temptation to alter U.S. policies in the South China Sea to preserve cooperation with China in other areas is unnecessary and potentially counterproductive. This puts more pressure on Washington to intervene and U.S. allies and partners in Asia are watching carefully and drawing conclusions about U.S. commitment and staying power in the region. More than 50% of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, the Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait over the islands and waters of the SCS amounting to around $5 trillion. We will defend freedom of the seas and skies.. director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative at Peking . Yet, due to Turkey's strategic importance, the US cannot afford to affront Mr. Erdogan, who carries a peculiar . This alignment will further U.S. goals: to continue to mount a forward defense, to keep the seas and skies free, and to promote prosperity and the spread of democracy. To this end, the new administration should perform an early, top-down, and thorough strategic review to enable greater consistency and effectiveness in U.S. South China Sea policy. The 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea is an international treaty that sets out importantmaritime rules. In addition to far flung island territories (formerly occupied by Japan) in the South Pacific, the United States had a substantial military garrison in Japan and close ties with South Korea and the Philippines a former colony. All Rights Reserved, Japans Emerging Role as the Worlds Consensus Builder, Balancing Acts in U.S. Southeast Asia Policy, Pakistans Foreign Policy Priorities: A Conversation with Foreign Minister by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Indias Economic Ambitions in the Pharmaceutical Industry, Paving the Path to Soft Power: Crucial Moments in South Koreas Cultural Policies, Afghanistan: The United States Must Stay Engaged. Even if Beijings island-building campaign succeeds in turning the South China Sea into a Chinese lake, it will be one in which Chinese forces are constantly monitored and from which they can only depart with implicit American acquiescence. Total fish stocks have been depleted by 70 to 95 percent since the 1950s. - Interview with Ana Krstinovska, Russia's Growing Influence in the Middle East: an interview with Alexander Hoffmann, Serbia's Uneasy Balance Between Moscow and the EU: an interview with Suzana Grubjesic, Gulf States' Economic Momentum: an interview with Omar Al-Ubaydli, Prospects for Turkey-EU Relations Amid Tensions, Need to Cooperate and Lack of Trust: an interview with Nilgn Arsan Eralp, Germany's Shifting Stance in the Greek-Turkish Dispute: an interview with Ioannis P. Sotiropoulos, Bulgaria's Economic Perspectives amid Political Uncertainty and Challenges, Saudi Arabia's Reforms, Relations with the United States, and Choice of New Allies: an interview with David H. 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The United States needs to maintain a difficult balancing act, supporting the democratic aspirations of the Thai people while remaining a security and economic partner of choice for the elites and armed forces. U.S. goals to uphold regional alliances and partnerships, defend international rules and norms, and maintain a productive relationship with China remain valid. The three core areas that must be defended and secured are the Malay Peninsula, Sabah and Sarawak. The U.S. military used Utapao for refueling efforts during operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as for multinational relief efforts after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and April 2015 Nepal earthquake., The U.S.-Thai alliance has also served as a platform for important training exercises. Dispersed American forces would act as countermeasure and would complicate defense planning for the Chinese military and political calculations for Beijing, while ensuring U.S. forces are positioned to support each other in the event of a crisis. Narendra Modis Act East policy has resulted in an acceleration of burgeoning India-ASEAN ties and Indias position on the South China Sea territorial disputes essentially mirrors that of the United States. Inconsistent messaging and policiesincluding on freedom of navigation and routine presence operationshave also led to confusion in the region. With a new Southeast Asian strategic alignment taking shape as described, geography makes Indonesia and Malaysiaespecially due to its Sabah and Sarawak states on Borneothe regions key swing states. U.S. access to the South China Sea is coming under increasing threat as Chinese power increases, but can be preserved if the United States maintains a sufficient military advantage over China. Beyond that, there are a variety of formal security cooperation agreements with Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Importantly, the countries of maritime Southeast Asia are not aligning only with the United States, but with a grouping of external states concerned with the nature of Chinas rise. Southeast Asia will inevitably be rendered subordinate and compliant to Chinas will. Despite all that, Beijing now faces a competition with Washington (and Delhi and Tokyo) for influence in Naypyidaw. Close allies such as Australia and Japan have a great deal to offer in terms of capability and capacity, and should be encouraged to do more. India will lose its current freedom of access into the South China Sea and much of Southeast Asia. The message will be clear; the era of American international leadership and predominance is over and a new preeminent power has taken its place. The reaction of the Chinese Foreign Minister was incendiary and revealing. The diplomatic tempest at the ARF came when U.S. security attention was preoccupied with ongoing military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the global counterterrorism campaign with Osama bin Laden still at large. Rival countries have wrangled over territory in the South China Sea for centuries, but tension has steadily increased in recent years. In the near term, this could lead to sales of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance equipment as well as patrol boats to allow Hanoi to better keep an eye on goings-on in the western South China Sea. It would also open the option of persistently jamming Chinese radar installations in the Spratlys. China, too, considers control of these waters to be of high strategic importance. South China Sea has geo-strategic, geo-politic and geo-economic importance due to half of the world trade passage and presence of precious resources of oil and gas. More importantly, it also covers the most crucial energy routes for East Asian countries to transport oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. Even then, the countrys division between royalists and red-shirts will likely endure. The South China Sea is the gateway to access to the world ocean, the nexus for navigation as well as a security fence for several littoral states. Seventh Fleet transits regularly between the Pacific and Indian Oceans (including the Bay of Bengal). What is the strategic importance of the South China Sea. In 2010, the US declared its freedom of navigation in the SCS to be a national interest in response to Chinas increasingly assertive posture. Besides, more than half of the world's fishing vessels pass through the SCS. The area includes several hundred small islands, rocks, and reefs, with the majority located in the Paracel and Spratly Island chains. In the past two weeks, Filipino . The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. "First, South China Sea is important for the strategic patrol of Chinese SSBN [nuclear ballistic missile submarine], which needs to enter west Pacific Ocean for its nuclear . It is clear that increased maritime power projection in the SCS, from the Chinese in particular, has upset regional stability, and this is likely to continue. These factors combined give a strategic importance to the South China Sea that has led to numerous states Brunei, the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam each pressing their own claims to . China perceives Vietnam as an obstacle for acquiring its control over this strategic sea. With the National League for Democracy now in power in Naypyidaw, China cannot rely on Burma as an automatic ally. The "Implementing the Strategic Action Programme for the South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand" (SCS SAP Project) completed its Inception Phase with the 1st Steering Committee Meeting held online on the 29 and 30 of June, 2021 with official representatives from Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam and the UNEP Task Manager for the project, with the support of . The Obama administrations decision to lift the decades-old arms embargo on Vietnam is instrumental here. Chinas island outposts will increase this advantage as Chinese aircraft, ships, and paramilitary vessels will be able to rest and resupply in the southern portion of the South China Sea. But in order to achieve renewed stability in the regionto ensure that Southeast Asians are not susceptible to non-military Chinese coercionthe United States must strive to become more than just the security partner of choice. This principled stand allows the United States to defend its interests without embroiling itself in the murky sovereignty claims at the heart of the South China Sea dispute. Ironically, the United States is drawing closer to communist Vietnam, in which human rights are serially abused, while growing apart from a major Vietnam War ally, largely due to concerns over democratic backsliding. China's actions in the SCSincluding extensive . In . As maritime security such as safety and freedom of . You can update your choices at any time in your settings. What is the Strategic Importance of the South China Sea? U.S. responses to Chinas South China Sea activities have been insufficient to alter Chinas behavior and have fed the narrative that China is pushing the United States out of the region.
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